David Toms’ Biggest Blunder

This past weekend, David Toms and K.J. Choi treated viewers to another great Players Championship, with the tournament going to a playoff and Choi winning on the 17th hole due to an inexplicable three-putt by David Toms.  While certainly nobody expected Toms to miss his second putt on the 17th hole, this was not the shot that lost him the tournament.  The shot that lost David Toms the Players Championship was his second shot on the Par 5 16th hole.

With a one-shot lead and closest challenger K.J. Choi being forced to lay up, Toms had 244 yards left to the hole, almost entirely over water.   Toms elected to go for it, and everybody cringed as his ball came up yards short, forcing him to drop a lengthy 160 yards back from the hole.  He would hit the green with his fourth shot and two-putt for his bogey.  Choi would miss a short birdie putt, but Toms had opened the door for K.J. to make a comeback.

Why did Toms feel the need to go for it on the 16th?  With a one-shot lead, he could have laid up and had an easy shot from within 100 yards.  David Toms is one of the best wedge players on tour, and this should have been an easy shot for him.  The problem here is that Toms did not recognize the situation as one in which he did not need  to go for it.  In his situation, it looked unlikely that Choi would make a birdie, and laying up would almost certainly guarantee him a par at worst, which would give him a one-shot lead going into the final two holes.  There was also the chance that he could birdie the hole and have a two-shot cushion going into the 17th hole.   The advantages of going for it from 250 yards in no way outweigh those of laying up.  From 250 yards out, the odds that Toms would be able to hit it close enough to make an eagle and effectively shut the door were almost slim to none.  At best he would make a tough birdie, but the risks were huge.

The game of golf sometimes requires gutsy shots, and sometimes requires smart shots.  There have been numerous situations when a player was almost forced to hit a gutsy shot in order to win.  Think Tiger Woods’ bunker shot over water from 218 yards out in the 2002 Canadian Open that gave him the victory.  Think Sergio Garcia hitting off a tree stump in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.  At the same time, there are situations when golfers don’t need to pull off the greatest shot they’ve ever hit in order to clinch victory.  In the 2007 British Open at Carnoustie, Padraig Harrington walked onto the 18th tee with a two-shot lead over Sergio Garcia.  Unbelievably, he pulled a driver and hit his first ball into the Barry Burn.  After making a double bogey on the hole, Harrington was forced into a playoff where he would eventually defeat Garcia, but he had learned his lesson.  When the situation calls for it, its ok to hit a gutsy shot.  But most of the time, the safe play is the one that will win you a trophy.

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